The elephant we're all talking about

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The elephant we're all talking about

Post  gendoikari87 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:01 pm

Normally the elephant in the room is something everyone knows, but no one talks about. Well, lately I’ve been noticing that there’s an elephant we’re all talking about, as if it’s an elephant in the room. I’m not talking about the possibility of some imminent collapse, or revolution, but rather that we’re all talking about it. Conservatives are talking about an uprising or invasion if Obama wins, economy experts are talking about major collapse, Left wing extremists and even moderates are talking about civil war with the conservatives rising up. Everyone has their own scenario, and timeline, but they all seem to inevitably lead to major strife and a SHTF scenario if you will.

Point being, everyone and their mother is talking about a near future SHTF scenario. Now, I don’t believe for one second that anytime in the next decade the S is going to HTF. The status quo being to line the pockets of the rich, is based on the shit not hitting the fan. What I find curious however is that everyone is talking like the end is nigh. Now as a species when it comes to predicting the future we are very good at projecting our own desires into our predictions. And this is what I find curious and somewhat disconcerting. Surely no one wants the economy to collapse, no body WANTS civil war. Or do they? I won’t dismiss out of hand the possibility that a collapse is possible in the near future but I think all our predictions of such a scenario are based less on fact and more on our own frustrations with the world. A way of fantasizing about having actual control over ones own life, which seems, at present, impossible. Or maybe it’s our human side showing through, the darker more bestial nature which we have thankfully suppressed successfully in modern times.

Then again, even though we are so good at projecting our own desires onto our predictions of the future, we are also good at making those predictions reality, in a self fulfilling prophecy sort of way. But Still I think what we are in for is more theft from the middle class, and business as usual for a long time to come. We can't continue down this road forever of course, as capitalism is fully unsustainable, but I think the impetus for change will come not from here but from the exploited masses elsewhere, india, the phillipines, and other third world nations paid pennies an hour to build the junk of the capitalists. And that won't be for a long time to come, and likely won't be violent.

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  lemur_ on Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:06 pm

gendoikari87 wrote:
Now, I don’t believe for one second that anytime in the next decade the S is going to HTF. The status quo being to line the pockets of the rich, is based on the shit not hitting the fan. What I find curious however is that everyone is talking like the end is nigh.

We're manufacturing an ecological disaster as we speak! One the one hand you are right that the rich are not actively hoping for a catastrophe to occur tomorrow (well, some of them probably are but not most of them). On the other hand, you underestimate how shortsighted the rich are. The ecological disaster will come due to their doing because their aim is to maximize their benefit here and now. Just look at CEOs who make a bunch of decisions to inflate the numbers that will give them short term raises and bonuses but will in the long term destroy a company. Not a problem for them because they'll just be somewhere else.

gendoikari87 wrote:
Now as a species when it comes to predicting the future we are very good at projecting our own desires into our predictions. And this is what I find curious and somewhat disconcerting. Surely no one wants the economy to collapse, no body WANTS civil war. Or do they?

Yes, some people are fantasizing about disasters for a whole slew of reasons I'm not going to get into here, but I don't think people talking about climactic collapse are hoping that it will happen.

The only thing I'm going to say regarding fantasies is that a lot of those engaging in apocalyptic fantasy are forgetting something: if SHTF chances of survival amount to sheer luck. To put in in other terms, if we pick any individual, even those who have prepared thoroughly, the odds are overwhelming that the individual we picked won't survive significantly longer than anyone else.
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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  gendoikari87 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:11 pm

well the ecological disasters are still at a minimum a half century away. Climate change is at most either going to displace a few hundred million people, or cause a mini ice age. Overpopulation is a bigger threat, but it's hard to pin down when that will occur. Some estimates put overpopulation at 50 years some put it at 200+ years.

also I think in a total disaster, even if it were to occur, I'd think we'd see more people banning together than shooting each other, just out of sheer necessity for survival. I could be horribly optimistic on that though.

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  comedian on Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:31 pm

There are some right- wingers whose idea of a new civil war would involve them breaking out their Red Dawn gear and fighting in the mountains while the UN, liberals and brown hordes obligingly wander straight into their rifle sights.
These people are comical.
There are others, more extreme, who drool over the prospect of settling old scores, real or imaginary, against folks who are of the wrong race or white folks who think the wrong way ( race traitors ). These are your white lumpenproletariat- biker gangs, neonazis, or any reactionary that exists outside of society, who will jump at the chance of joining a death squad of some sort or a terrorist cell.
These people are scary.
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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  Progurt on Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:55 pm

I remember when I was called paranoid and told things could never get that bad.

Now the norm is doom and gloom predictions. My fricking mother in law thinks the entire country is speeding towards collapse. And the more people think something will happen, the more likely it is to happen.

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  gendoikari87 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:02 pm

Progurt wrote:I remember when I was called paranoid and told things could never get that bad.

Now the norm is doom and gloom predictions. My fricking mother in law thinks the entire country is speeding towards collapse. And the more people think something will happen, the more likely it is to happen.
This is likely very true, but I still think it has more to do with being a self fulfilling prophecy. But that doesn't stop it from being true.

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  gendoikari87 on Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:21 pm

Here's an idea, my prediction of the S not HTF or at least not for a long time to come, might be a projection of my own desires?

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  Progurt on Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 am

It's possible.

I've got a wait and see attitude on everything

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  gendoikari87 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:26 am

my attitude is "hope for the best prepare for the rest." The rest including not just SHTF but loosing my job and whatnot so the full blown prepper thing is just stupid when I can use that money to have saved away for a rainy day.

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  lemur_ on Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:42 am

gendoikari87 wrote:my attitude is "hope for the best prepare for the rest." The rest including not just SHTF but loosing my job and whatnot so the full blown prepper thing is just stupid when I can use that money to have saved away for a rainy day.

I'm going to go out on limb and assume that by "full blown" you mean "underground bunker" or "maintaining a fully stocked bug out place out there in the woods." I would tend to agree with that. As a general rule, the more intricate the disaster plans are, the more likely they are to be detrimental to achieving more immediate goals. E.g. the guy who spends his entire weekends tuning his underground bunker could have put this energy into some business, or might be neglecting his family life.

Then again not everybody is cut out to run a business (e.g. me). So spending time working on the underground bunker can be seen in the same light as any other hobby. Just like any other hobby, it can be a rewarding activity or ruin a person's life.

I'm writing this realizing that in many prepper minds there is a correlation between the need for an underground bunker and hate for liberals or blacks or gays or foreigners, etc. Then again that is probably true of many who frequent our respective local ranges.
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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  lemur_ on Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:42 am

lemur_ wrote:
gendoikari87 wrote:my attitude is "hope for the best prepare for the rest." The rest including not just SHTF but loosing my job and whatnot so the full blown prepper thing is just stupid when I can use that money to have saved away for a rainy day.

I'm going to go out on limb and assume that by "full blown" you mean "underground bunker" or "maintaining a fully stocked bug out place out there in the woods." I would tend to agree with that. As a general rule, the more intricate the disaster plans are, the more likely they are to be detrimental to achieving more immediate goals. E.g. the guy who spends his entire weekends tuning his underground bunker could have put this energy into some business, or might be neglecting his family life.

Then again not everybody is cut out to run a business (e.g. me). So spending time working on the underground bunker can be seen in the same light as any other hobby. Just like any other hobby, it can be a rewarding activity or ruin a person's life.

I'm writing this recognizing that in many prepper minds there is a correlation between the need for an underground bunker and hate for liberals or blacks or gays or foreigners, etc. Then again that is probably true of many who frequent our respective local ranges.
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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  gendoikari87 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:51 am

lemur_ wrote:
gendoikari87 wrote:my attitude is "hope for the best prepare for the rest." The rest including not just SHTF but loosing my job and whatnot so the full blown prepper thing is just stupid when I can use that money to have saved away for a rainy day.

I'm going to go out on limb and assume that by "full blown" you mean "underground bunker" or "maintaining a fully stocked bug out place out there in the woods." I would tend to agree with that. As a general rule, the more intricate the disaster plans are, the more likely they are to be detrimental to achieving more immediate goals. E.g. the guy who spends his entire weekends tuning his underground bunker could have put this energy into some business, or might be neglecting his family life.

Then again not everybody is cut out to run a business (e.g. me). So spending time working on the underground bunker can be seen in the same light as any other hobby. Just like any other hobby, it can be a rewarding activity or ruin a person's life.

I'm writing this realizing that in many prepper minds there is a correlation between the need for an underground bunker and hate for liberals or blacks or gays or foreigners, etc. Then again that is probably true of many who frequent our respective local ranges.
well if it's a hobby, have at it hoss. I just can't afford to be stocking food when I can barely afford to buy what i need to eat. (which is what i meant by stupid, wasting money I don't have). I mean I went dirt cheap on the AR, and i'm dang lucky i found it for that cheap.

That being said the extent of my prepping involves keeping our little garden plot we used to have fertilized and having some seed on hand. You'd be surprised how cheap planting seed is, or maybe not, but it's a great way to save money, even outside of prepping. and I think that's what a lot of the hard core preppers forget "what happens when you run out of your three year supply"? a good shovel, and a green thumb, is the best survival gear you can have.

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  lemur_ on Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:17 am

gendoikari87 wrote:well if it's a hobby, have at it hoss. I just can't afford to be stocking food when I can barely afford to buy what i need to eat. (which is what i meant by stupid, wasting money I don't have). I mean I went dirt cheap on the AR, and i'm dang lucky i found it for that cheap.

It seems to me the example you are giving us here conflicts with the principle I thought you were professing. The money that was put towards an AR is either money put towards a hobby or money put "in case SHTF". In either case, this is money not put towards a more immediate need: i.e. being able to easily handle a local disaster, hurricane, tornado, really bad storm, etc. It's not like I'm up to date on the weather in GA. Here in MD it is generally quiet yet we got a bad storm earlier this summer which was enough to cut our power, require a water restriction policy, and make roads dangerous for a few days. Our 2 weeks of food and water we keep in the basement came in handy.

gendoikari87 wrote:
That being said the extent of my prepping involves keeping our little garden plot we used to have fertilized and having some seed on hand. You'd be surprised how cheap planting seed is, or maybe not, but it's a great way to save money, even outside of prepping. and I think that's what a lot of the hard core preppers forget "what happens when you run out of your three year supply"? a good shovel, and a green thumb, is the best survival gear you can have.

I agree with the importance of gardening skills. Here, my wife is responsible for the garden. As for stocking food, I have not planned for anything more than roughly 2 weeks for me, my wife and our two cats. (We could conceivably have food for longer than that due to my wife's gardening and canning but since I'm not responsible for that, I do not count it in the stock I want to keep for emergencies. Besides, a can of tomato sauce is not my idea of a good meal.) The way we handle it is I just buy non-perishable grocery store items we'd eat anyway. The only thing we have which is not straight from the grocery store are a few MREs. They are easier to manage if we need to evacuate but in a pinch we could do with the regular grocery stuff.

("Evacuate? Why would you need to evacuate? OMG! You're crazy!" We've got railroad tracks not in our backyard but close enough that a derailment could require evacuation.)
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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  gendoikari87 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 am

The money that was put towards an AR is either money put towards a hobby or money put "in case SHTF".
Well it can be both.

Weather in Georgia is hot and humid, occasional thunderstorm. Rarely do we get tornadoes, hurricanes don't reach this far inland (north georgia). No major earthquakes, as far as mother nature is concerned georgia is relatively safe. The people on the other hand, well....

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Re: The elephant we're all talking about

Post  Progurt on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:11 pm

gendoikari87 wrote:Rarely do we get tornadoes, hurricanes don't reach this far inland (north georgia).
You might think that, but here in Ohio in 2008 we had Hurricane Ike wreck our electrical infrastructure, in some cases for weeks.

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